論文 - 詳細
| RRC ID | 60957 |
|---|---|
| 著者 | Xiaoling, Z. Yichao, L. Yunyun, W. Hongyu, C. Hui, Z. Zhiheng, W. |
| タイトル | Influence of future climate change in suitable habitats of tea in different countries |
| ジャーナル | Biodiversity Science |
| Abstract |
Tea (Camellia sinensis) is an important crop and is sensitive to climate change. Evaluating the impact of climate change on tea distribution and production is not only important for the global economy but also the livelihoods of farmers in many countries. Here we compiled data from 858 global occurrences of C. sinensis and six climatic variables, and used species distribution model (SDM) to predict the current potential distribution and possible range shifts in response to climate change in 2070 under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 and 8.5 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The results indicate that the current potential distribution of tea is mainly confined to Asia, Africa and South America, and distribution is limited by mean temperature of coldest quarter (MTCQ) and precipitation of warmest quarter (PWQ). Under future climate change scenarios, by 2070 suitable habitat for tea could significantly shrink at low latitudes, but expand at middle latitudes, leading to a northward shift of the distribution. However, the influence of future climate change on tea distribution differed across regions. The climatically suitable areas in Argentina, Myanmar, and Vietnam are projected to decrease by 57.8%-95.8%, whereas those in China and Japan are projected to increase by 2.7%-31.5%. Moreover, 68% of the new suitable habitat for tea cultivation under future climate change are predicted to lie within areas of natural vegetation cover. Therefore, the establishment of new tea gardens in these areas may lead to conflicts between tea cultivation and conservation of natural vegetation and biodiversity. |
| 巻・号 | 27(6) |
| ページ | 595-606 |
| 公開日 | 2019-6-20 |
| DOI | 10.17520/biods.2019085 |
| リソース情報 | |
| GBIF | Plant Specimen Database of Tama Forest Science Garden, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan Vascular plant specimens of Akita Prefectural Museum Herbarium, University Archives and Collections, Fukushima University, Japan (FKSE) Angiospermatatophytina Collection of Saitama Museum of Natural History Vascular plant specimens of Iida City Museum Vascular Plant Collection of Natural History Museum and Institute, Chiba Herbarium Specimens of Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Pref., Japan Spermatophyta collection of Museum of Natural and Environmental History, Shizuoka Ibaraki Nature Museum, Vascular Plants collection Vascular plant specimens of National Museum of Nature and Science (TNS) Plant Specimens of Kurashiki Museum of Natural History Herbarium Specimens of Tokushima Prefectural Museum, Japan Herbarium of Kitakyushu Museum of Natural History and Human History Spermatophyta specimens of Iwate Prefectural Museum Vascular Plants Collection of Sagamihara City Museum Plant specimens in the Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan Plant specimens deposited in Osaka Museum of Natural History, Japan Vascular Plant Specimens of Kochi Prefectural Makino Botanical Garden Vascular Plant Specimen database of Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History Gunma Museum of Natural History, Vascular Plant Specimen Occurrence data of woody plants in the Ginkakuzi-san National Forest |