| Abstract |
The study of the distribution of protected animal species in Europe is especially relevant in a changing climate. Therefore, in this work, we tried to solve the problem of the possibility of habitation of tortoises Testudo graeca Linnaeus, 1758 and Testudo hermanni Gmelin, 1789 in Eastern Europe by using species distribution models (SDMs). We used bioclimatic variables from the CliMond dataset (18 uncorrelated variables of 35) and 19 Paleoclim variables of the “early-Holocene” and “mid-Holocene”. Packages Maxent and 'ntbox' were employed. In addition to our data, we used findings listed in the GBIF databases: 1,935 points for T. graeca and 991 points for T. hermanni. It has been shown that subspecies of tortoises differ in the characteristics of the ecological niche. In addition to direct anthropogenic influences, the limiting factor is the “Mean temperature of coldest quarter” (bio11) for both species. Moreover, T. graeca is less demanding and can tolerate both frost and higher temperatures during drier periods than T. hermanni. Modeling found that in the future it is possible for these species will expand in a north-eastern direction, where potentially suitable habitats will appear: by 2090 in the South of Ukraine (Odessa region, Crimea) and East Ukraine (floodplain of the Siversky Donets River of the Don basin).
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