| Author |
Cory Merow, Josep Serra-Diaz, Ben Carlson, Brian Maitner, Gonzalo Pinilla-Buitrago, Christopher Trisos, Adam Wilson, Alex Pigot, Mark Urban
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| Abstract |
2023 was the hottest year in recorded history at the time of its recording1 and warmer than any in the past 125,000 years2. Although the effects of this unprecedented year on human health, agriculture, and economies have been documented3, we know much less about its effects on global biodiversity, especially in poorly monitored regions. Here, we demonstrate a rapid climate bioassessment pipeline to pinpoint when and where species have recently been exposed to extreme weather. Applying this approach to > 33,000 terrestrial vertebrate species, we demonstrate that 2023 posed unprecedented levels of risk to biodiversity, with half of all species exposed to extreme temperatures somewhere in their geographic range and 1 in 10 exposed across > 25% of their range. We show that exposure to extreme weather has increased rapidly over the last decade and that many species now exist dangerously close to their historical niche limits. Consequently, although the global mean annual temperature in 2023 was only 0.2oC warmer than the previous warmest year on record in 2016, species exposure doubled. Our 2023 vertebrate assessment provides a prototype for a highly flexible pipeline that can be extended to accommodate any pertinent weather data collected in real-time and can be customized for regional, taxonomic, or conservation-specific needs. Our pipeline can be used to direct management resources to those ecosystems and species, particularly in poorly monitored regions, that are at risk of unnoticed collapse, decline, or extinction following exposure to unprecedented conditions.
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