論文 - 詳細
| RRC ID | 68190 |
|---|---|
| 著者 | Baumbach L, Warren DL, Yousefpour R, Hanewinkel M. |
| タイトル | Climate change may induce connectivity loss and mountaintop extinction in Central American forests. |
| ジャーナル | Commun Biol |
| Abstract |
The tropical forests of Central America serve a pivotal role as biodiversity hotspots and provide ecosystem services securing human livelihood. However, climate change is expected to affect the species composition of forest ecosystems, lead to forest type transitions and trigger irrecoverable losses of habitat and biodiversity. Here, we investigate potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of main plant functional types (PFTs) across Central America. Using a large database of occurrence records and physiological data, we classify tree species into trait-based groups and project their suitability under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) with an ensemble of state-of-the-art correlative modelling methods. Our results forecast transitions from wet towards generalist or dry forest PFTs for large parts of the study region. Moreover, suitable area for wet-adapted PFTs is projected to latitudinally diverge and lose connectivity, while expected upslope shifts of montane species point to high risks of mountaintop extinction. These findings underline the urgent need to safeguard the connectivity of habitats through biological corridors and extend protected areas in the identified transition hotspots. |
| 巻・号 | 4(1) |
| ページ | 869 |
| 公開日 | 2021-7-15 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s42003-021-02359-9 |
| PII | 10.1038/s42003-021-02359-9 |
| PMID | 34267317 |
| PMC | PMC8282624 |
| MeSH | Animals Biodiversity Central America Climate Change* Conservation of Natural Resources / methods Conservation of Natural Resources / statistics & numerical data Conservation of Natural Resources / trends Ecosystem* Forestry / methods Forestry / statistics & numerical data* Forestry / trends Geography Humans Models, Theoretical Plants / classification Plants / metabolism* Population Dynamics Trees / classification Trees / metabolism* Tropical Climate |
| IF | 4.165 |
| リソース情報 | |
| GBIF | Spermatophyte collection of Himeji City Science Museum Plant Specimen Database of Tama Forest Science Garden, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan Vascular plant specimens of Akita Prefectural Museum Ibaraki Nature Museum, Vascular Plants collection Vascular plant specimens of National Museum of Nature and Science (TNS) Vascular Plants Collection of Sagamihara City Museum Plant specimens in the Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan Plant specimens deposited in Osaka Museum of Natural History, Japan Vascular Plant Specimen database of Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History Herbarium Specimens of Bonin and Ryukyu Islands Vascular plant specimens of Nagano Environmental Conservation Research Institute, Nagano Prefecture Tracheophyta collection of Biodiversity Center of Japan, Ministry of the Environment Vascular plant specimens of Toyama Science Museum The 2-5th National Survey on the Natural Environment: Vegetation Survey |