RRC ID 68272
著者 García-Peña GE, Rubio AV, Mendoza H, Fernández M, Milholland MT, Aguirre AA, Suzán G, Zambrana-Torrelio C.
タイトル Land-use change and rodent-borne diseases: hazards on the shared socioeconomic pathways.
ジャーナル Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
Abstract Land-use change has a direct impact on species survival and reproduction, altering their spatio-temporal distributions. It acts as a selective force that favours the abundance and diversity of reservoir hosts and affects host-pathogen dynamics and prevalence. This has led to land-use change being a significant driver of infectious diseases emergence. Here, we predict the presence of rodent taxa and map the zoonotic hazard (potential sources of harm) from rodent-borne diseases in the short and long term (2025 and 2050). The study considers three different land-use scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways narratives (SSPs): sustainable (SSP1-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6), fossil-fuelled development (SSP5-RCP 8.5) and deepening inequality (SSP4-RCP 6.0). We found that cropland expansion into forest and pasture may increase zoonotic hazards in areas with high rodent-species diversity. Nevertheless, a future sustainable scenario may not always reduce hazards. All scenarios presented high heterogeneity in zoonotic hazard, with high-income countries having the lowest hazard range. The SSPs narratives suggest that opening borders and reducing cropland expansion are critical to mitigate current and future zoonotic hazards globally, particularly in middle- and low-income economies. Our study advances previous efforts to anticipate the emergence of zoonotic diseases by integrating past, present and future information to guide surveillance and mitigation of zoonotic hazards at the regional and local scale. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.
巻・号 376(1837)
ページ 20200362
公開日 2021-11-8
DOI 10.1098/rstb.2020.0362
PMID 34538146
PMC PMC8450622
MeSH Animals Climate Change* Conservation of Natural Resources* Ecosystem* Host-Parasite Interactions Host-Pathogen Interactions* Humans Rodent Diseases / epidemiology Socioeconomic Factors* Zoonoses / epidemiology*
IF 5.68
リソース情報
GBIF Mammal specimens of Toyota City Nature Sanctuary Mammal specimens of Obihiro Centennial City Museum Mammal specimens of Oiso Municipal Museum Mammal specimens of Saitama Museum of Natural History Gunma Museum of Natural History, Mammal Specimen Mammal specimens of Kawasaki Municipal Science Museum Mammal specimens of Komatsu City Museum Mammalians Specimens of Akita Prefectural Museum Ibaraki Nature Museum, Mammals collection