論文 - 詳細
| RRC ID | 68472 |
|---|---|
| 著者 | Lavender E, Fox CJ, Burrows MT. |
| タイトル | Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale. |
| ジャーナル | PLoS One |
| Abstract |
Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species' distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species' conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species' range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050-2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases. |
| 巻・号 | 16(10) |
| ページ | e0258184 |
| 公開日 | 2021-10-4 |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0258184 |
| PII | PONE-D-20-29872 |
| PMID | 34606498 |
| PMC | PMC8489719 |
| MeSH | Animals Aquatic Organisms / physiology* Climate Change* Ecosystem* Fishes / physiology* Internationality* Normal Distribution Species Specificity Temperature Water* |
| IF | 2.74 |
| リソース情報 | |
| GBIF | Fish Specimens of the Yamagata Prefectural Museum Fish specimens of Bihoro Museum Asia-Pacific Dataset Marine Biological Sample Database, JAMSTEC Project for Reef Fish Monitoring Type Collection of the Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Kyoto University Fish specimens of Natural History Museum, Kishiwada City Vertebrate specimens of Kumamoto City Museum Image Database of Fishes in the Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History Fish collection of the Kagoshima University Museum Actinopterygius Specimens of Akita Prefectural Museum Ibaraki Nature Museum, Fish collection Fish collection of the Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Fish Collection of Yokosuka City Museum Fish Collection of Hokkaido University Fish Specimens of Tokushima Prefectural Museum, Japan Fish Specimens of Graduate School of Bioresources Mie University Fish specimen database of Osaka Museum of Natural History Fish collection of National Museum of Nature and Science Freshwater Fish Specimens of Lake Biwa Museum Fish Collection of Natural History Museum and Institute, Chiba Fish Collection of Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History Zoological specimens of Gifu Prefectural Museum Gunma Museum of Natural History, Fish Specimen Fish specimens of Okinawa Prefectural Museum & Art Museum Fish Collection of Coastal Branch of Natural History Museum and Institute, Chiba Fish specimens of Kaizuka City Museum of Natural History Fish specimens of Toyama Science Museum |