論文 - 詳細
| RRC ID | 69118 |
|---|---|
| 著者 | Li Y, Shao W, Jiang J. |
| タイトル | Predicting the potential global distribution of Sapindus mukorossi under climate change based on MaxEnt modelling. |
| ジャーナル | Environ Sci Pollut Res Int |
| Abstract |
Sapindus mukorossi (S. mukorossi) is an important biological washing material and biomass energy tree species whose peel is rich in saponins, and its kernels have a high oil content. We used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the suitable habitats of S. mukorossi globally, screen the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution and analyse the changes in its suitable habitats under climate change from prehistory to the future, and the results will provide a scientific basis for germplasm resource collection, protection, introduction and cultivation. Twenty-two environmental variables and global distribution data for S. mukorossi were used to construct the species distribution model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to verify the accuracy of the model. The dominant environmental factors were screened through the jackknife method, and then, the geographical information system (ArcGIS) was used to complete the grade of suitable habitat division and area calculation. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent predictive effect, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value was as high as 0.969. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), temperature seasonality (Bio4) and isothermality (Bio3) were the dominant environmental factors that affected the distribution of S. mukorossi. The largest area of the world's suitable habitats occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) (772.69 × 104 km2), and the area decreased sharply (614.46 × 104 km2) during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The area of suitable habitat showed an increasing trend during the Mid-Holocene (MH) and currently, with areas of 631.06 × 104 km2 and 706.82 × 104 km2, respectively. The area of suitable habitats for S. mukorossi globally was 718.35 × 104 km2 (SSP1-2.6), 636.85 × 104 km2 (SSP2-4.5), 657.64 × 104 km2 (SSP3-7.0) and 675.89 × 104 km2 (SSP5-8.5) under the four scenarios of the future climate. The area increased only in the SSP1 scenario. In summary, globally, the suitable area of S. mukorossi tended to migrate to higher latitudes and decrease in area with future climate change. |
| 巻・号 | 29(15) |
| ページ | 21751-21768 |
| 公開日 | 2022-3-1 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11356-021-17294-9 |
| PII | 10.1007/s11356-021-17294-9 |
| PMID | 34773237 |
| MeSH | China Climate Change* Ecosystem Forecasting Sapindus* Temperature |
| IF | 3.056 |
| リソース情報 | |
| GBIF | Long-term fauna and flora records of the experimental forests of the Forest Research Station of Hokkaido University, Japan Plant specimens of Toyota City Nature Sanctuary Plant Specimen Database of Tama Forest Science Garden, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan Plant specimens of Komatsu City Museum Plant specimens of Horaiji-san Museum of Natural History Toji K. collection The 6-7th National Survey on the Natural Environment: Vegetation Survey Vascular plants database of Atsugi City Museum Herbarium, University Archives and Collections, Fukushima University, Japan (FKSE) Angiospermatatophytina Collection of Saitama Museum of Natural History Vascular Plant Collection of Natural History Museum and Institute, Chiba Herbarium Specimens of Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Pref., Japan Spermatophyta collection of Museum of Natural and Environmental History, Shizuoka Ibaraki Nature Museum, Vascular Plants collection Vascular plant specimens of National Museum of Nature and Science (TNS) Plant Specimens of Kurashiki Museum of Natural History Herbarium Specimens of Tokushima Prefectural Museum, Japan Vascular Plants Collection of Sagamihara City Museum Plant specimens in the Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan Plant specimens deposited in Osaka Museum of Natural History, Japan Vascular Plant Specimens of Kochi Prefectural Makino Botanical Garden Plant Specimens of The Shimane Nature Museum of Mt. Sanbe Vascular Plant Specimen database of Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History Gunma Museum of Natural History, Vascular Plant Specimen Vascular plants collection of Hiratsuka City Museum Plant specimens of Horaiji-san Museum of Natural History Kichi T. collection Herbarium Specimens of Bonin and Ryukyu Islands Asahikawa Educational College herbarium Plant specimens of Toyota City Nature Sanctuary (from non-museum circle) The 2-5th National Survey on the Natural Environment: Vegetation Survey |