| RRC ID |
72123
|
| 著者 |
Hirabayashi K, Murch SJ, Erland LAE.
|
| タイトル |
Predicted impacts of climate change on wild and commercial berry habitats will have food security, conservation and agricultural implications.
|
| ジャーナル |
Sci Total Environ
|
| Abstract |
Climate change is now a reality and is altering ecosystems, with Canada experiencing 2-4 times the global average rate of warming. This will have a critical impact on berry cultivation and horticulture. Enhancing our understanding of how wild and cultivated berries will perform under changing climates will be essential to mitigating impacts on ecosystems, culture and food security. Our objective was to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability of four berry producing Vaccinium species: two species with primarily northern distributions (V. uliginosum, V. vitis-idaea), one species with a primarily southern distribution (V. oxycoccos), and the commercially cultivated V. macrocarpon. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model and the CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 projected to 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Wild species showed a uniform northward progression and expansion of suitable habitat. Our modeling predicts that suitable growing regions for commercial cranberries are also likely to shift with some farms becoming unsuitable for the current varieties and other regions becoming more suitable for cranberry farms. Both V. macrocarpon and V. oxycoccos showed a high dependence on precipitation-associated variables. Vaccinium vitis-idaea and V. uliginosum had a greater number of variables with smaller contributions which may improve their resilience to individual climactic events. Future competition between commercial cranberry farms and wild berries in protected areas could lead to conflicts between agriculture and conservation priorities. New varieties of commercial berries are required to maintain current commercial berry farms.
|
| 巻・号 |
845
|
| ページ |
157341
|
| 公開日 |
2022-11-1
|
| DOI |
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157341
|
| PII |
S0048-9697(22)04439-4
|
| PMID |
35842164
|
| MeSH |
Agriculture
Climate Change
Ecosystem
Food Security
Fruit*
Plant Extracts
Vaccinium macrocarpon*
|
| IF |
6.551
|
| リソース情報 |
| GBIF |
Long-term fauna and flora records of the experimental forests of the Forest Research Station of Hokkaido University, Japan
Plant Specimen Database of Tama Forest Science Garden, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan
Plant specimens of Komatsu City Museum
The 6-7th National Survey on the Natural Environment: Vegetation Survey
Vascular Plant Specimens of Yamagata Prefectural Museum
Vascular plant specimens of Omachi Alpine Museum
Vascular plant specimens of Akita Prefectural Museum
Herbarium, University Archives and Collections, Fukushima University, Japan (FKSE)
Angiospermatatophytina Collection of Saitama Museum of Natural History
Herbarium of Hokkaido University Museum (SAPS)
Herbarium Specimens of Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Pref., Japan
Spermatophyta collection of Museum of Natural and Environmental History, Shizuoka
Ibaraki Nature Museum, Vascular Plants collection
Vascular plant specimens of National Museum of Nature and Science (TNS)
Plant Specimens of Kurashiki Museum of Natural History
Spermatophyta specimens of Iwate Prefectural Museum
Vascular Plants Collection of Sagamihara City Museum
Plant specimens in the Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan
Plant specimens deposited in Osaka Museum of Natural History, Japan
Vascular Plant Specimens of Kochi Prefectural Makino Botanical Garden
Vascular Plant Specimen database of Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History
Gunma Museum of Natural History, Vascular Plant Specimen
Plant specimens of Kushiro City Museum
Plant specimens of Bihoro Museum
Vascular plant specimens of Sugadaira Research Station, Mountain Science Center, University of Tsukuba
Herbarium of Shinshu University
Plant specimens of Parthenon Tama Museum (PTHM)
Plant specimens of Obihiro Centennial City Museum
Vascular plant specimens of The Shirakami Research Center for Environmental Sciences, Hirosaki University
Asahikawa Educational College herbarium
Plant specimens of the Museum of Yamagata University
Plant specimens of Toyota City Nature Sanctuary (from non-museum circle)
Vascular plant specimens of Toyama Science Museum
The 2-5th National Survey on the Natural Environment: Vegetation Survey |
