| RRC ID |
73574
|
| 著者 |
Chiarenza AA, Waterson AM, Schmidt DN, Valdes PJ, Yesson C, Holroyd PA, Collinson ME, Farnsworth A, Nicholson DB, Varela S, Barrett PM.
|
| タイトル |
100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world.
|
| ジャーナル |
Curr Biol
|
| Abstract |
Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5-23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.
|
| 巻・号 |
33(1)
|
| ページ |
109-121.e3
|
| 公開日 |
2022-12-21
|
| DOI |
10.1016/j.cub.2022.11.056
|
| PII |
S0960-9822(22)01847-4
|
| PMID |
36549298
|
| MeSH |
Animals
Climate Change
Ecosystem
Fresh Water
Probability
Turtles* / physiology
|
| IF |
9.601
|
| リソース情報 |
| GBIF |
Reptilian specimens of Tochigi Prefectural Museum
Yasuhiro Fudouji Specimens of Saga Prefectural Space and Science Museum
Reptile Specimens of Natural History Museum, Kishiwada City
Herpetological specimens of Okinawa Prefectural Museum & Art Museum
Reptile specimens of Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History
Herpetological (amphibian & reptile) specimens of Ryukyu University Museum (Fujukan)
Fossil Specimens of Ibaraki Nature Museum
vertebrate specimens of Kumamoto City Museum
Ibaraki Nature Museum, Amphibians and Reptiles collection
Herpetological collection of National Museum of Nature and Science |
