| RRC ID |
79314
|
| Author |
Albano PG, Schultz L, Wessely J, Taviani M, Dullinger S, Danise S.
|
| Title |
The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea.
|
| Journal |
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
|
| Abstract |
The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.
|
| Volume |
121(15)
|
| Pages |
e2320687121
|
| Published |
2024-4-1
|
| DOI |
10.1073/pnas.2320687121
|
| PMID |
38557179
|
| PMC |
PMC11009679
|
| MeSH |
Africa, Western
Biodiversity*
Ecosystem*
Global Warming
Humans
Mediterranean Sea
|
| IF |
9.412
|
| Resource |
| GBIF |
Mollusca collection of National Museum of Nature and Science
Shellfish specimens of the Nishinomiya Shell Museum, Japan |
