| RRC ID |
81191
|
| 著者 |
Hong J, Lee M, Kim Y, Lee YS, Wee J, Park JJ, Lee WK, Song Y, Cho K.
|
| タイトル |
Potential range shift of a long-distance migratory rice pest, Nilaparvata lugens, under climate change.
|
| ジャーナル |
Sci Rep
|
| Abstract |
The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges.
|
| 巻・号 |
14(1)
|
| ページ |
11531
|
| 公開日 |
2024-5-21
|
| DOI |
10.1038/s41598-024-62266-x
|
| PII |
10.1038/s41598-024-62266-x
|
| PMID |
38773173
|
| PMC |
PMC11109201
|
| MeSH |
Animal Migration* / physiology
Animals
Australia
China
Climate Change*
Hemiptera* / physiology
Oryza* / parasitology
Seasons
Temperature
|
| IF |
3.998
|
| リソース情報 |
| GBIF |
Insect specimens of Iwate Prefectural Museum
Insects Specimens of Kagoshima Prefectural Museum
Insect Specimen Database of Fukui City Museum of Natural History
Insect specimen database of Atsugi City Museum
Hemiptera (Homoptera) collection of National Museum of Nature and Science |
