RRC ID 82194
Author Vogt-Vincent NS, Pringle JM, Cornwall CE, McManus LC.
Title Anthropogenic climate change will likely outpace coral range expansion.
Journal Sci Adv
Abstract Past coral range expansions suggest that high-latitude environments may serve as refugia, potentially buffering coral biodiversity loss due to climate change. We explore this possibility for corals globally, using a dynamic metacommunity model incorporating temperature, photosynthetically available radiation, pH, and four distinct, interacting coral assemblages. This model reasonably reproduces the observed distribution and recent decline of corals across the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean. Our simulations suggest that there is a mismatch between the timescales of coral reef decline and range expansion under future predicted climate change. Whereas the most severe declines in coral cover will likely occur within 40 to 80 years, large-scale coral reef expansion requires centuries. The absence of large-scale coral refugia in the face of rapid anthropogenic climate change emphasizes the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate nonthermal stressors for corals, both in the tropics and in higher latitudes.
Volume 11(23)
Pages eadr2545
Published 2024-7-24
DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adr2545
Description J-OBIS data were referenced.
PMID 40479055
MeSH Animals Anthozoa* / physiology Anthropogenic Effects* Biodiversity Climate Change* Coral Reefs Ecosystem
IF 13.117
Resource
GBIF Cnidaria specimens of Ryukyu University Museum (Fujukan) Asia-Pacific Dataset Plankton&BenthosResearch Regionally Integrated Marine Database (RINKAI), managed by JAMBIO, an association of Japanese university-based marine stations Cnidaria Collection of the Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Kyoto University Decline in the Acropora population due to repeated moderate disturbances in Okinotorishima Island, Japan Scleractinia specimens of Kuroshio Biological Research Foundation Distribution of Stylaraea punctata (Linnaeus, 1758) in Okinawa Island, Japan