RRC ID 83032
Author Garrido Zornoza M, Caminade C, Tompkins AM.
Title The effect of climate change and temperature extremes on Aedes albopictus populations: a regional case study for Italy.
Journal J R Soc Interface
Abstract The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has spread widely throughout Italy since its introduction, with significant public health implications. We examine how decadal temperature trends and sub-monthly heatwave events affect its climate-driven geographical distribution and temporal dynamics using a new regional-scale dynamical Aedes model. The model is calibrated using [Formula: see text] years of ovitrap data for Emilia-Romagna and reproduces the vector seasonality and, to a lesser extent, its inter-annual variability. Simulated vector density hotspots overlap with densely populated areas in Rome, Milan, Naples, Foggia, Catania, Palermo, Lecce, Cagliari, Genoa, Turin and large urban centres in Emilia-Romagna. Lower risk is simulated over the Central Apennine mountains and the Alps. At decadal time scale, we simulate a lengthening of the active mosquito season by 0.5-3 weeks per decade, with the vector becoming homodynamic in southern Italy. Depending on the climatic setting, heatwaves can increase or reduce vector populations and, in some locations, can temporarily decrease mosquito populations. Such decreases can be followed by a population rebound and overshoot. Given the model's skill in reproducing key spatio-temporal Ae. albopictus features, there is potential to develop an early warning system to inform control efforts at a national scale.
Volume 21(220)
Pages 20240319
Published 2024-11-6
DOI 10.1098/rsif.2024.0319
PMID 39501807
PMC PMC11538950
MeSH Aedes* / physiology Animals Climate Change* Italy Models, Biological Mosquito Vectors* / physiology Seasons Temperature
Resource
GBIF Diptera collection of National Museum of Nature and Science Entomological Specimens of Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Pref., Japan Ibaraki Nature Museum, Arthropoda collection Insect Specimen Database of Fukui City Museum of Natural History Osaka Prefectural Minoh Park Insects Museum Insect specimens in the Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan Insect specimens of Ryukyu University Museum (Fujukan) Insect Collection of Natural History Museum and Institute, Chiba