Reference - Detail
| RRC ID | 83434 |
|---|---|
| Author | Bas M, Ouled-Cheikh J, Fuster-Alonso A, Julià L, March D, Ramírez F, Cardona L, Coll M. |
| Title | Potential Spatial Mismatches Between Marine Predators and Their Prey in the Southern Hemisphere in Response to Climate Change. |
| Journal | Glob Chang Biol |
| Abstract |
Global change is rapidly reshaping species' habitat suitability ranges, hence leading to significant shifts in the distribution of marine life. Contrasting distributional responses among species can alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey, potentially disrupting trophic interactions and affecting food web dynamics. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in the spatial overlap of habitat suitability ranges for trophically related species, including crustaceans, fish, penguins, and pinnipeds across 12 Large Marine Ecosystems from the Southern Hemisphere, merged into three primary regions: South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. To this aim, we first use Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to hindcast and project species-specific changes in suitable habitat from 1850 to 2100 under two future climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low climate forcing) and SSP5-8.5 (high climate forcing). We then analyze changes in species habitat suitability and potential predator-prey spatial overlaps. Findings reveal that marine species generally exhibit changes in their suitable habitats, with pronounced shifts towards higher latitudes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, contrasting trends emerge among predators across functional groups and regions of South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. These variations highlight the need for species and regional-specific management responses. We also project contrasting spatial mismatches between predators and prey: predators experiencing declines in suitable habitat tend to exhibit greater overlap with their prey in future scenarios, whereas those with expanding suitable habitat show reduced spatial overlap with their prey. This study provides valuable insights that can inform spatial management strategies in response to climate change and illustrate how climate change may weaken species' ability to adapt to climate-driven environmental changes due to trophic disruptions. |
| Volume | 31(2) |
| Pages | e70080 |
| Published | 2025-2-19 |
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.70080 |
| Description | J-OBIS data were referenced. |
| PMID | 39968629 |
| MeSH | Africa, Southern Animals Aquatic Organisms* / physiology Australia Climate Change* Ecosystem* Fishes / physiology Food Chain* New Zealand Predatory Behavior* South America |
| IF | 8.555 |
| Resource | |
| GBIF | Asia-Pacific Dataset Birds collection of Abiko City Museum of Birds Bird specimens of the Yamashina Institute for Ornithology Fish specimens of Natural History Museum, Kishiwada City Bird Specimens in the Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo, Japan Vertebrate specimens of Kumamoto City Museum Image Database of Fishes in the Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History Bird specimens of Himeji City Science Museum Fish collection of the Kagoshima University Museum Actinopterygius Specimens of Akita Prefectural Museum Ibaraki Nature Museum, Fish collection Ibaraki Nature Museum, Birds collection Fish collection of the Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo Fish Collection of Yokosuka City Museum Fish Collection of Hokkaido University Fish Specimens of Tokushima Prefectural Museum, Japan Fish Specimens of Graduate School of Bioresources Mie University Fish specimen database of Osaka Museum of Natural History Fish collection of National Museum of Nature and Science Bird collection of National Museum of Nature and Science Mammal collection of National Museum of Nature and Science Fish Collection of Natural History Museum and Institute, Chiba Fish Collection of Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History Zoological specimens of Gifu Prefectural Museum Bird specimen database of Kanagawa Prefectural Museum of Natural History Bird specimens of Komatsu City Museum Fish Collection of Coastal Branch of Natural History Museum and Institute, Chiba JODC Dataset |