| Abstract |
Climate change is driving many species to shift their geographical ranges poleward to maintain their environmental niche. However, for endemic species with restricted ranges, like the Critically Endangered whitefin swellshark (Cephaloscyllium albipinnum), endemic to southeastern Australia, such dispersal may be limited. Nevertheless, there is a poor understanding of how C. albipinnum might spatially adjust its distribution in response to climate change or whether suitable refugia exist for this species in the future. Therefore, to address this gap, this study utilised maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to determine the potential distribution of suitable habitat for C. albipinnum under present-day (2010-2020) climate conditions and for future conditions, under six shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) for the middle (2040-2050) and end (2090-2100) of the century. Under present-day conditions (2010-2020), our model predicted a core distribution of potentially suitable habitat for C. albipinnum within the Great Australian Bight (GAB), with benthic primary productivity and surface ocean temperature identified as key distribution drivers. However, under all SSP scenarios, future projections indicated an expected range shift of at least 72 km, up to 1,087 km in an east-southeast direction towards Tasmania (TAS). In all future climate scenarios (except SSP1-1.9 by 2100), suitable habitat is expected to decline, especially in the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), which anticipates a loss of over 70% of suitable habitat. Consequently, all future climate scenarios (except SSP1-1.9 by 2100) projected a decrease in suitable habitat within a currently designated marine protected area (MPA). These losses ranged from 0.6% under SSP1-1.9 by 2050 to a substantial 89.7% loss in coverage under SSP5-8.5 by 2100, leaving just 2.5% of suitable habitat remaining within MPAs. With C. albipinnum already facing a high risk of extinction, these findings underscore its vulnerability to future climate change. Our results highlight the urgency of implementing adaptive conservation measures and management strategies that consider the impacts of climate change on this species.
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