| Abstract |
Global climate change is expected to significantly reshape marine species distributions, particularly among taxa traditionally classified as cold-water specialists. This study investigates the genus Zoarces, comprising six species, to elucidate the environmental drivers of their current distributions and predict future habitat shifts under multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Utilizing species distribution models and ecological niche overlap analyses, we identify key abiotic factors influencing Zoarces distributions, assess center-of-mass migration trajectories, and quantify interspecific niche dynamics in response to warming oceans. Our results reveal that Z. andriashevi exhibits a broad suitable habitat exceeding 5.49 million km2, with high-suitability zones constituting 21.5% of this area. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, its habitat is projected to expand by approximately 1.7 million km2 by 2100, reflecting strong environmental tolerance and adaptability to rising temperatures. Z. americanus maintains a wide but spatially concentrated distribution across temperate regions of the eastern USA, western Europe, and the Yellow and Bohai Seas. In contrast, Z. fedorovi and Z. gillii display restricted range characteristics, with Z. gillii-the earliest diverged lineage-primarily inhabiting the relatively warmer Yellow and Bohai Sea regions, where its suitable habitat is contracting under climate warming. Crucially, ecological niche analyses reveal that Zoarces species exhibit complex patterns of niche divergence and convergence under future climate scenarios. Notably, niche separations are predicted between Z. americanus and both Z. viviparus and Z. elongatus, while significant niche integration is projected between Z. americanus and Z. fedorovi, suggesting intensified interspecific competition. Collectively, these findings challenge the prevailing assumption that Zoarces are strictly cold-water origin species. Instead, their distributional and phylogenetic evidence supports a warm-temperate origin with subsequent adaptations to colder environments. This study provides a rigorous theoretical framework for understanding Zoarces' evolutionary ecology under climate change and informs biodiversity conservation and sustainable management strategies within this genus.
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